Stratfor: Războiul clanurilor de la Kremlin

Posted on 22/02/2012 by

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Clanul “siloviki” – reprezentat de oamenii din sfera Kremlinului cu legaturi in structurile militare si de securitate, adica “aripa dura” – a depus eforturi sustinute, de-a lungul timpului, pentru a impiedica aceste programe si a rezistat tentativelor Kremlinului de a aduce mai multa transparenta in mediul de afaceri, menite sa atraga interesul investitorilor straini. Din momentul in care economia europeana si situatia politica din Rusia au inceput sa influenteze negativ acest interes, “siloviki” au un argument real in favoarea abandonarii planurilor de modernizare a economiei.

Unul dintre exponentii clanului “siloviki”, vicepremierul Igor Secin, a argumentat ca firmele pe cale sa fie privatizate sunt subevaluate. Principalul lui exemplu este gigantul Rosneft, unde pretul actiunii este de 7 dolari. Secin si multi analisti financiari rusi cred ca pretul ar trebui sa depaseasca 11 dolari si ca este subevaluat din cauza circumstantelor economice din Europa si a celor politice din Rusia. Acelasi Secin crede ca nu trebuie grabit programul de privatizare, prezentat initial drept un instrument contra deficitului bugetar, care este, acum, ca si inexistent.

In pofida pozitiei “siloviki”, putinii “civiliki” – clanul rival de la Kremlin, format din strategi cu inclinatii liberale – ramasi in guvern, in special in subordinea ministrului Economiei Elvira Nabiullina – lucreaza de o luna asupra unui nou plan de modernizare si privatizare. Chestiunea privatizarilor este discutata, saptamana aceasta, la Kremlin, insa planul de modernizare a economiei nu a fost, inca, abordat.

Pentru moment, planul sprijina ideea amanarii majoritatii eforturilor de privatizare pana in 2017, in ideea de a acorda Europei timp sa-si revina din criza economica, ceea ce ar spori interesul europenilor de a investi in Rusia, pe viitor. O astfel de amanare ar permite clanului “siloviki” suficient timp sa incerce sa blocheze definitiv programul de privatizare, dar, in paralel, ar putea da Kremlinului timp sa se reorganizeze intern si sa creeze un nou clan “civiliki” in masura sa implementeze schimbarile in pofida opozitiei “siloviki”.

Despre clanuri si miscari la Kremlin – analiza originala.

Russia’s political landscape is shifting, and the redifinition is rippling through groups both inside and outside the Kremlin. Over the past decade, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin designed a complex grouping of powerful people divided into two main clans: the civiliki and the siloviki. The civiliki are more liberal-minded economic and social strategists, while the siloviki are mostly security hawks and former KGB officials. Putin understood that both sets of minds were needed to consolidate and strengthen Russia in the short term while planning for a more modern Russian economy and society in the future. But due to several social, political and economic shifts in the country, as well as personality conflicts both between and inside the two clans, Putin’s system has broken apart and left Kremlin policymaking in shambles. Many of Putin’s loyalists have either left their posts (such as former Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin) or been sacked (such as former State Duma Speaker Boris Gryzlov), reshuffled (such as former NATO Ambassador Dmitri Rogozin) or demoted (such as former Deputy Chief of Staff Vladislav Surkov). This has left Putin without the strong and focused group needed to combat outside political instability involving the rise of anti-Kremlin groups. Putin will be able to sort through the crises inside the Kremlin and among his loyalists. However, the longer it takes Putin to establish a new system inside the Kremlin, the weaker he will look and the longer it will take for Moscow to focus on other pressing matters.

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