Ferguson: Grecia echivalentul unui Lehman Brothers ?

Posted on 15/06/2012 by

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Grecia este echivalentul unui Lehman Brothers pentru Europa, şi dacă această ţară va fi lăsată să cadă, atunci, acest pas, se va face chiar săptămâna viitoare, spune Niall Ferguson profesor de economie în cadrul celebrei universităţi Harvard. El se declară însă încrezător în faptul că politicienii vor găsi cea mai bună soluţie pentru rămânerea Greciei în zona euro.

“Acum nu este clar cine va ceda primul” a declarat profesorul Ferguson pentru Bloomberg Tv. “Părerea mea este că, până la urmă, vor fi cedări de ambele părţi. Vom avea o reeditare – financiară însă – a cunoscutei dispute a nervilor dintre Rusia şi SUA privind amplasarea de rachete nucleare în Cuba. Rachetele nucleare în acest caz sunt posibilele atacuri de panică – fugă a capitalurilor din bănci. Un fenomen la care, în cele din urmă, nici chiar Germania nu poate rămâne imună” a adăugat acesta. “Nu vom vedea o fugă a capitalurilor din băncile germane, dar efectele unui astfel de fenomen în Sudul Europei vor fi resimţite de economia germană. Iar politicienii ştiu asta”

Ferguson s-a declarat încrezător în faptul că Grecia va rămâne în zona euro, iar liderii europeni vor colabora mai bine după alegerile din Grecia din acest final de săptămână. El a mai avertizat însă că în acest moment lumea îşi pune prea mult speranţa în capacitătea băncilor centrale de a face faţă şocurilor.

“Până la urmă nici băncile centrale nu pot lua măsuri chiar de capul lor. Şi cred că atunci când pieţele cred în puterea absolută a acestora de a interveni, prin programe de QE, LTRO sau orice altceva, se înşeală. Aici nu este vorba doar de lichiditate, ci de solvabilitatea guvernelor şi a băncilor” a mai spus acesta.

Niall Ferguson: Bio Data

Niall Campbell Douglas Ferguson (born April 18, 1964, in Glasgow) is a British historian who specialises in financial and economic history as well as the history of colonialism. He is the Laurence A. Tisch Professor of History at Harvard University and the William Ziegler Professor of Business Administration at Harvard Business School. He was educated at the private Glasgow Academy in Scotland, and at Magdalen College, Oxford.

He is best known outside academia for his revisionist views rehabilitating imperialism and colonialism; within academia, his championing of counterfactual history is a subject of some considerable controversy. In 2008, Ferguson published his most recent book, The Ascent of Money: A Financial History of the World which he also presented as a Channel 4 television series. At Harvard College, Ferguson teaches a popular undergraduate class entitled “Western Ascendancy: The Mainsprings of Global Power from 1600 to the Present.”

Academic career

1987–88 Hanseatic Scholar
1989–90 Research Fellow, Christ’s College, University of Cambridge
1990–92 Official Fellow and Lecturer, Peterhouse, University of Cambridge
1992–2000 Fellow and Tutor in Modern History, Jesus College, University of Oxford
2000–02 Professor of Political and Financial History, University of Oxford
2002–04 John Herzog Professor in Financial History at Stern School of Business, New York University
2004, continuing. Laurence A. Tisch Professor of History, Harvard University and William Ziegler Professor of Business Administration at the Harvard Business School. He has also accepted the Philippe Roman Chair in History and International Affairs at the London School of Economics, located within LSE IDEAS, beginning in 2010.

Ferguson is a Senior Research Fellow of Jesus College, Oxford University and a Senior Fellow of the Hoover Institution, Stanford University. He is a resident faculty member of the Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, and an advisory fellow of the Barsanti Military History Center at the University of North Texas.

Business career – In 2007, Ferguson was appointed as an Investment Management Consultant by GLG Partners, focusing on geopolitical risk as well as current structural issues in economic behaviour relating to investment decisions. GLG is a UK-based hedge fund management firm headed by Noam Gottesman.

Career as commentator – In October 2007, Niall Ferguson left The Sunday Telegraph to join the Financial Times, where he is now a contributing editor.

Ferguson has often described the European Union as a disaster waiting to happen and has criticised President Vladimir Putin of Russia for authoritarianism. In Ferguson’s view, Putin’s policies stand to lead Russia to catastrophes equivalent to those that befell Germany during the Nazi era.

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