“Geuro” ultimul colac de salvare

Posted on 23/05/2012 by

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EUobserver

Economistul-şef al Deutsche Bank, Thomas Mayer, a propus, în timpul unui colocviu organizat de cotidianul german Die Welt, introducerea “Geuro” pentru Grecia, o monedă paralelă monezii euro, care ar înlocui-o pe aceasta din urmă, “pentru a permite Greciei să-şi devalorizeze moneda rămânând în acelaşi timp în cadrul zonei euro“, explică EUobserver:

Dacă stânga radicală va câştiga alegerile din 17 iunie şi îşi va ţine promisiunea de a respinge planul de salvare de 130 de miliarde de euro, ca şi reducerile bugetare care îl însoţesc, Grecia va putea rămâne în sânul zonei euro fără niciun ajutor financiar, cu condiţia să introducă o monedă paralelă. ‘Geuro’ ar fi constituit din promisiuni de plată, o formă de titlu de obligaţiune emisă de guvern, care ar putea fi ulterior revândută. Ar fi puternic devalorizat faţă de euro dar ar permite guvernului să câştige timp pentru a duce la capăt reformele şi a vota reducerile bugetare. […] O condiţie esenţială pentru ca acest scenariu să funcţioneze este ca ajutorul să continue să vină din partea altor ţări din zona euro şi din partea FMI. […] Băncile greceşti, lipsite de lichidităţi, ar fi avut nevoie să fie salvate prin metoda creării unei ‘bănci toxice’ europene.

Sursa: EUobserver

Business Insider: Introducing The ‘Geuro’ –  A Radical New Currency Idea To Solve All Of Greece’s Problems

Here’s a radical new idea from former Deutsche Bank Chief Economist and current Senior Advisor Thomas Mayer, based on the facts that a) Greeks don’t want to leave the euro and b) they also don’t want to continue with the Troika bailout programs as they are currently constituted.

All of the talk to date has been of a binary option for the eurozone between a cooperative Greek government that gets to stay in the euro and a non-cooperative one (presumably led by the likes of Syriza boss Alexis Tsipras) having to exit the euro.

But maybe there’s a third option, just because the stakes are so high here. The rest of the eurozone doesn’t want to see a Greek exit because of the potential for other countries following suit (whether they contemplate leaving as well or experience similar runs on bank deposits), which would be disastrous.

What would that middle ground look like? According to Mayer, the Troika could decide on “a partial stop in financial assistance, with continuing support for debt service needs and the Greek banking sector but no further support for the financing of the government’s primary expenses.”

Thus, the “Geuro” is born:

Assuming that the Greek government is unable to quickly balance its primary budget, a plausible response of the government to the shortage of euro cash as a result of the end of financial transfers would be to issue debtor notes (IoUs) to its creditors, promising payment as soon as fresh euro cash would become available. As creditors lacking euro cash would have to use the IoUs to settle their own bills, these instruments would assume the role of a parallel currency (let’s call it Geuro).

The Geuro would probably quickly be used in most domestic transactions. For the purchase of essential imports, Geuros would have to be exchanged against euros, most likely at a hefty discount of 50% or more. Since an increasing number of domestic goods, services and wages would be paid in devalued Geuros, the export sector could reduce its prices in euro and regain competitiveness against foreign suppliers. The exchange rate of the Geuro relative to the euro would be determined by the primary budget gap of the government that is being filled by Geuro issuance. Political pressure could build for more prudent policies as Greek residents saw their terms of trade decline. Read more,  in Business Insider

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